Abstract
Purpose
Limited research exists on tobacco taxes and cigarette smoking initiation and progression,
particularly across different sociodemographic groups in young adulthood. This project
examines how cigarette pack price in late adolescence prospectively relates to smoking
initiation and progression by 21 years of age, focusing on differences across demographics.
Methods
Data are from the longitudinal Monitoring the Future project (2001–2017). Monitoring
the Future examines drug use behaviors with nationally representative samples of 12th
graders annually. Subsamples of 12th graders are followed up longitudinally. We examined
past 30-day cigarette smoking among baseline never smokers (N = 9,232) and daily smoking
among youths who were not daily cigarette smokers at baseline (N = 15,141). Using
logistic regression, we examined state-level cigarette pack price at a modal age of
18 years and smoking at follow-up ages 19–20 years; we used interaction terms to assess
differences across sociodemographic groups (by gender, race/ethnicity, and parental
education).
Results
For each dollar increase in price at baseline, the odds of initiation by age 19–20
years were reduced by 12% (adjusted odds ratio = .88; 95% confidence interval = .78,
.99) and the odds of progression to daily smoking were reduced by 16% (adjusted odds
ratio = .84; 95% confidence interval = .76, .92). After adjusting for multiple testing,
for both outcomes there were no statistically significant interactions between price
and demographics.
Conclusions
Cigarette prices in late adolescence were associated with a prospective reduction
in cigarette smoking initiation and progression among young adults, with limited differences
across sociodemographic characteristics. Higher cigarette prices can prevent smoking
initiation and progression; however, complementary interventions are needed to reduce
initiation and progression among subgroups disproportionately affected by tobacco.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: October 08, 2020
Accepted:
August 28,
2020
Received:
June 21,
2020
Footnotes
Conflicts of interest: The authors report no conflicts of interest.
Identification
Copyright
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